Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • Djibouti
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Togo
  • Ethiopia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $810,449$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{721,889.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 127.8)}}\) (asimptote \(721,889.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,067$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,450.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 132.8)}}\) (asimptote \(20,450.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,084$ on 2020-12-05

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $102,991$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 231.7)}}\) (asimptote \(113,562.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,526$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,024$ on 2020-12-05

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,036$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,132.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,132.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 194.6)}}\) (asimptote \(136.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $386$ on 2020-12-05

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,529$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,511.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 202.6)}}\) (asimptote \(97,511.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,219$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,394.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 197.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,394.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,262$ on 2020-12-05

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $376,738$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{725,689.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 260.1)}}\) (asimptote \(725,689.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,184$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,408.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 252.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,408.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,861$ on 2020-12-05

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,014$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,053.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.7)}}\) (asimptote \(106,053.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,750$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,241.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,241.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,940$ on 2020-12-05

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,413$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,283.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,283.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $342$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 108.1)}}\) (asimptote \(315.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,214$ on 2020-12-05

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,692$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,437.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,437.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-12-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Togo recovered 48%
Ethiopia recovered 31%

Togo⮸

Population $8,278,724$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,051$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,340.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 213.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,340.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.3}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 200.7)}}\) (asimptote \(96.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $387$ on 2020-12-05

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $112,740$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,789.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 138.9)}}\) (asimptote \(108,789.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,745$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,671.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,671.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,416$ on 2020-12-05