Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $810,449$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{721,889.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 127.8)}}\) (asimptote \(721,889.8\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22,067$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,450.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 132.8)}}\) (asimptote \(20,450.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,084$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $102,991$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 231.7)}}\) (asimptote \(113,562.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,526$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,024$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,036$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,132.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,132.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 194.6)}}\) (asimptote \(136.4\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $386$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,529$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,511.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 202.6)}}\) (asimptote \(97,511.7\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,219$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,394.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 197.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,394.5\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,262$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $376,738$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{725,689.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 260.1)}}\) (asimptote \(725,689.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,184$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,408.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 252.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,408.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,861$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,014$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,053.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.7)}}\) (asimptote \(106,053.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,750$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,241.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,241.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,940$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,413$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,283.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,283.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $342$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 108.1)}}\) (asimptote \(315.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,214$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,692$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,437.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,437.5\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39$ on 2020-12-05